GEO
GEO GROUP INC
Next earnings Aug 4, 2026 · consensus $0.30 EPS, $729M rev
Last earnings +20.9% on 2026-05-06
$30.36
▲ +3.51%$30.36▲ +30.41%
over 1Y
L $13.26EODHDH $30.36
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+3.5%
1W+2.3%
1M+34.0%
3M+81.7%
YTD+90.6%
1Y+30.4%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Medium (3–12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 8 analysts
Buy
GEO is a leveraged play on Trump-era ICE expansion — revenue inflecting, EPS up 7x, and 6,646 idle beds offering $240M of latent upside.
The read
Quality fundamentals and an attractive price line up (~128% below fair value) — the rarer case where both the business and the entry look good.
GEO's FY2025 results mark a clear inflection. Revenue grew 8.6% to $2.63B after three years of stagnation around $2.4B, and net income jumped to $254M from $32M as the company lapped one-time charges and benefited from the policy reset. The MD&A frames this as 'an unprecedented opportunity' tied to the Trump Administration's Executive Order reversing the prior DOJ directive against private criminal detention contracts, alongside expanded ICE enforcement priorities. Average occupancy rose to 89.2% from 87.2%, and the company is investing aggressively — capex tripled to $198M — to expand detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring for the federal government.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.41B | $2.42B | $2.63B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $288M | $384M | $352M | $310M | $257M |
| Net income | $77.4M | $172M | $107M | $32.0M | $254M |
| Diluted EPS | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.72 | $0.22 | $1.82 |
| Net margin | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 9.7% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$5.66B
EV / EBITDA14.5
EV / Sales2.2
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)0.02
Earnings yield6.2%
FCF yield-3.1%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)6.4%
Free cash flow-$125M
Total debt$1.65B
Net cash-$1.58B
Piotroski F-Score7/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield2.2%
Dividend yield (est.)0.7%
Shareholder yield3.0%
Shares Δ YoY-4.3%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRecent disclosure tone has been improving.
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-05-07
Q1 2026 results show ICE contract ramp; carrying costs weigh near-term
- 8-K Earnings results2026-05-06
Q1 2026 earnings released; results detail ICE ramp impact on margins
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-04
Annual meeting vote results disclosed; routine governance outcome
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-19
Proxy: exec comp and board slate; routine governance filing
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-03-05
Executive officer change announced with related Reg FD disclosure
- 10-K Annual report2026-02-25
FY25 EPS $1.82; ~$240M idle-bed revenue upside from ICE expansion cited
- 8-K Officer / director change2026-02-12
FY2025 earnings: revenue $2.63B, EPS $1.82, net income up sharply
- 8-K Earnings results2026-02-12
FY2025 earnings: revenue $2.63B, EPS $1.82, net income up sharply
- 8-K Material agreement2026-01-26
New material agreement and debt obligation tied to ICE capacity buildout
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗11-KPeriod ending 2025-12-312026-06-25open ↗4Period ending 2026-06-042026-06-18open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-05-15open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-05-14open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-05-07open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-062026-05-06open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-282026-05-04open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-012026-04-02open ↗4Period ending 2026-03-312026-04-02open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-03-26open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is GEO GROUP INC (GEO) a buy?
- GEO currently carries a Buy rating with 4/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. GEO is a leveraged play on Trump-era ICE expansion — revenue inflecting, EPS up 7x, and 6,646 idle beds offering $240M of latent upside.
- What is GEO's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on GEO's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $69.16. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is GEO overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, GEO currently appears undervalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is GEO GROUP INC's quality score?
- GEO scores 77.84313725490196/100 (grade B+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000923796, latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-07) · EODHD · analysis by claude-code · as of 6/25/2026, 1:09:43 PM.
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