HCC
WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.
Next earnings Aug 4, 2026 · consensus $1.55 EPS, $494M rev
Last earnings -0.2% on 2026-04-30
$81.28
▼ -4.22%$81.28▲ +84.78%
over 1Y
L $40.96EODHDH $110.28
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today-4.2%
1W-7.6%
1M-16.2%
3M-18.0%
YTD-9.1%
1Y+84.8%
Buy
Conviction
Horizon
Long (>12mo)
12-mo target
$•••
Street · 12 analysts
Buy
Trough-earnings met-coal producer finishing a transformational Blue Creek mine that lifts capacity ~88% — leverage to recovery.
Revenue $1.31B · FY2025
The read
The fundamentals carry the rating, but the price is rich (~90% above our fair-value estimate) — a quality-at-a-price call. The case rests on the business, not the entry; patient buyers may wait for a pullback.
Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based, low-cost producer of premium metallurgical (steelmaking) coal exported to global steel producers. FY2025 captured the business at a cyclical trough: as met-coal prices fell, revenue declined 14.1% to $1.31B, operating income collapsed 82.1% to $45.7M, net income fell 77.3% to $57M ($1.08 diluted EPS), and the dividend was cut 59.3%. The resulting 83.9x P/E is purely a trough artifact, not a sign of overvaluation — the prior cycle shows the earnings power ($641M net income in FY2022).
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.74B | $1.68B | $1.53B | $1.31B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $244M | $801M | $541M | $255M | $45.7M |
| Net income | $151M | $641M | $479M | $251M | $57.0M |
| Diluted EPS | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 |
| Net margin | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$4.13B
EV / EBITDA17.6
EV / Sales3.2
EV / FCF171.9
P / FCF178.0
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield1.3%
FCF yield0.6%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)1.6%
Free cash flow$24.0M
Total debt$154M
Net cash$146M
Altman Z-Score5.71 safe
Piotroski F-Score4/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield0.0%
Dividend yield (est.)0.4%
Shareholder yield0.4%
Shares Δ YoY+0.1%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsSome governance/structural items recently, but no outright red flags.
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗4Period ending 2026-06-022026-06-04open ↗144Filing2026-06-02open ↗SCHEDULE 13G/AFiling2026-05-15open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-04-30open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-04-30open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-30open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-232026-04-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-232026-04-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-232026-04-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-232026-04-27open ↗4Period ending 2026-04-232026-04-27open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is WARRIOR MET COAL, INC. (HCC) a buy?
- HCC currently carries a Buy rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. Trough-earnings met-coal producer finishing a transformational Blue Creek mine that lifts capacity ~88% — leverage to recovery.
- What is HCC's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on HCC's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $7.85. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is HCC overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, HCC currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is WARRIOR MET COAL, INC.'s quality score?
- HCC scores 49.3921568627451/100 (grade D) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001691303, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · analysis by claude-code · as of 6/21/2026, 9:10:53 PM.
Research and education only — not financial advice. EDGAR is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and gives no personalized advice. Every call is impersonal — identical for all users, generated on a schedule from SEC filings plus a delayed/third-party price feed — may be wrong or out of date, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The operator and an affiliated trading operation may hold or trade the securities EDGAR rates; see Disclosures. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research.