NWE
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.
Next earnings Jul 28, 2026 · consensus $0.50 EPS, $386M rev
$73.42
▲ +2.77%$73.42▲ +47.85%
over 1Y
L $48.77EODHDH $73.42
Earnings Dividend Split Congress buy Congress sellGrouped by date · hover a pin to expand
Today+2.8%
1W+4.9%
1M+2.4%
3M+13.6%
YTD+15.6%
1Y+47.9%
Hold
Conviction
Horizon
Short (<3mo)
Street · 11 analysts
Buy
All-stock merger with Black Hills at 0.98x ratio caps the stock; FY25 EPS fell 19.5% and rate-base capex keeps outrunning cash.
Price $71.75 · Current
The read
Middling fundamentals and a rich price (~69% above fair value) leave little margin of safety — a wait-and-see.
NWE is effectively a merger-arb instrument right now. The 10-K discloses an August 18, 2025 agreement to be acquired by Black Hills in an all-stock 'merger of equals,' with each NWE share converting into 0.98 shares of the combined 'Bright Horizon Energy.' Black Hills is the accounting acquirer, the exchange ratio is fixed (no collar), and the filing flags shareholder vote, regulatory approvals, deal-protection/termination fees, and litigation as binary risks. Until the vote and state PUC sign-offs clear, NWE trades as a proxy on BKH's share price minus a deal-break discount — that asymmetry argues against fresh capital here.
Financials · annual, by fiscal year
| Line item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B | $1.48B | $1.42B | $1.51B | $1.61B |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $276M | $263M | $300M | $323M | $326M |
| Net income | $187M | $183M | $194M | $224M | $181M |
| Diluted EPS | $3.60 | $3.25 | $3.22 | $3.65 | $2.94 |
| Net margin | 13.6% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 11.2% |
Annual figures from SEC 10-K XBRL filings. Open the filing links below for full statement detail.
Key statistics
Valuation
Enterprise value$7.79B
EV / EBITDA13.5
EV / Sales4.8
EV / FCF—
P / FCF—
PEG (trailing)—
Earnings yield4.0%
FCF yield-2.9%
Quality & risk
ROIC (est.)4.2%
Free cash flow-$130M
Total debt$3.29B
Net cash-$3.28B
Altman Z-Score0.92 distress
Piotroski F-Score5/8
Capital returns
Buyback yield—
Dividend yield (est.)3.6%
Shareholder yield3.6%
Shares Δ YoY+0.2%
Computed from SEC XBRL annual figures + the current quote. EV and ROIC use long-term + current debt where filed; estimates, not investment advice.
Disclosure timeline
SEC · 8-Ks + reportsRoutine disclosure cadence — no material red flags in recent filings.
- 8-K Material agreement2026-06-22
New material agreement with debt obligation; likely credit facility or notes issuance
- 8-K Material agreement2026-06-02
Reg FD investor update, likely merger-related disclosure
- 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-06-02
Reg FD investor update, likely merger-related disclosure
- 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-05-27
Reg FD disclosure, likely Black Hills merger progress update
- 8-K Reg FD disclosure2026-05-18
Reg FD investor communication tied to pending Black Hills merger
- 8-K Shareholder vote2026-05-05
Annual meeting vote results disclosed, likely including merger approval
- 10-Q Quarterly report2026-04-30
Q1 2026 results filed amid pending Black Hills merger integration
- DEF 14A Proxy statement2026-03-12
Proxy solicits vote on Black Hills all-stock merger at 0.98 exchange ratio
- 10-K Annual report2026-02-12
FY25 net income -19% to $181M, LT debt +18%; merger of equals pending
Recent filings
all on EDGAR ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-152026-06-22open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-272026-06-02open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-06-022026-06-02open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-272026-05-27open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-05-182026-05-18open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-112026-05-12open ↗4Period ending 2026-05-112026-05-12open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-302026-05-05open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-30open ↗8-KPeriod ending 2026-04-292026-04-30open ↗10-QPeriod ending 2026-03-312026-04-30open ↗SCHEDULE 13GFiling2026-04-29open ↗
Frequently asked
- Is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) a buy?
- NWE currently carries a Hold rating with 3/5 conviction, derived from its latest SEC filings. All-stock merger with Black Hills at 0.98x ratio caps the stock; FY25 EPS fell 19.5% and rate-base capex keeps outrunning cash.
- What is NWE's fair value?
- A Modified-Graham model based on NWE's SEC fundamentals estimates a fair value of about $22.49. It is an estimate from reported earnings, not a price target.
- Is NWE overvalued or undervalued?
- Against a Modified-Graham fair-value estimate, NWE currently appears overvalued relative to its SEC-grounded earnings power.
- What is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s quality score?
- NWE scores 64.27450980392157/100 (grade C+) on a SEC-grounded quality model spanning value, growth, profitability, financial health and momentum.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001993004, latest 10-Q filed 2026-04-30) · EODHD · analysis by claude-code · as of 6/25/2026, 12:51:58 PM.
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