ONCY

Oncolytics is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biopharma whose entire value rests on one asset, pelareorep, an oncolytic reovirus for GI cancers. The science is genuinely interesting: in 2L KRAS-mutant MSS metastatic colorectal cancer the company cites a 33% ORR vs ~10% for standard-of-care, median PFS of 16.6 vs 5.7 months and median OS of 27 vs 11.2 months, and it has filed for Fast Track Designation. But these are early, cross-trial comparisons, not registrational results, and the company itself says it does not expect significant revenue 'until and unless pelareorep becomes commercially viable.' This is a binary, unknowable outcome — exactly the kind of risk the rubric flags as not investable now.

The balance sheet makes the timing acute. FY2025 ended with just $5.20M cash against operating cash burn of -$20.1M — roughly three months of runway at the current pace. Stockholders' equity is negative (-$3.80M) with liabilities ($11.4M) exceeding total assets ($7.58M), producing a -3.00x liabilities/equity figure that signals technical insolvency. Management explicitly states there is 'substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern over the next 12 months,' and that current cash is 'not sufficient to fund our planned operations over the next 12 months.' Total assets fell 43.5% and cash 53.0% year over year — the trajectory is straight down.